Possible scenario
Contained Attribution Fight
45% Chance
Lithuania, NATO and SpaceX treat the incident as a serious hybrid operation, but the damage remains limited and service continuity is preserved. Moscow denies involvement while Vilnius releases selective technical indicators and pushes for allied support rather than immediate escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications -0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.