Possible scenario
Rhetoric Without Escalation
25% Chance
Both sides keep the dispute in the political domain after Lai's address. Beijing condemns the remarks but avoids immediate military escalation, while Lai's government emphasizes continuity rather than a new independence push.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.