Possible scenario
Review Drags On
25% Chance
The CFTC keeps the application alive but extends its review of market-surveillance, custody, margining, and retail-risk controls. This is plausible because crypto derivatives remain politically sensitive even after recent approvals, especially for leveraged products aimed at U.S. customers.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Tickers
- COIN+0.8%
- CME+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.