Possible scenario
Licenses Approved
45% Chance
Blockchain.com wins the core CFTC registrations needed to offer U.S. crypto derivatives, following the path opened by Coinbase, Kraken, and approved bitcoin perpetual futures. This is the base case because the CFTC has already moved from enforcement-led oversight toward supervised market access for compliant crypto derivatives platforms.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Technology +0.1%
Tickers
- COIN-1.2%
- CME-0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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