Possible scenario
Disclosure Questions Dominate
16% Chance
The 'shut up' moment does not stand alone; it amplifies existing doubts created by Jackson’s broken debate pledge on funding disclosure. Collins’s campaign links the tone issue to a broader argument that Jackson is evasive and unprepared for the Senate.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.