Possible scenario
Foreign Bid Persists
45% Chance
The $426 billion quarterly inflow is interpreted as confirmation that global investors have moved past the 2025 'Sell America' trade. US earnings resilience, AI capital spending, and expected Fed easing keep foreign allocations tilted toward US equities.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Bitcoin Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.0%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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