Possible scenario
Limited Chinese Accommodation
35% Chance
China responds without appearing to concede to Washington, using the request to justify policies already aligned with Xi Jinping’s energy-security agenda. The most likely path is incremental domestic drilling support and selective messaging rather than a large near-term production surge.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
Tickers
- XOM-0.4%
- -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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