Possible scenario
Deal Advances Deliveries
42% Chance
The approval converts into contracts and delivery schedules with limited political resistance. Washington frames the package as a replenishment-and-sales model consistent with Trump's NATO weapons-sales approach, while Kyiv prioritizes Patriot interceptors and associated radar support.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
Tickers
- RTX+2.3%
- LMT+1.6%
- +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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