Possible scenario
Smaller Staged Agreement
25% Chance
The parties reach an agreement, but the second deal is reduced, phased, or converted into expansion options rather than a fully binding $45 billion commitment. This outcome is plausible because GPU availability, financing costs, and power interconnection risk make very large upfront commitments difficult to close.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.4%
- Utilities +0.2%
Tickers
- NVDA+1.3%
- AMD+0.5%
- ORCL+0.4%
- AMZN+0.2%
- -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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