Possible scenario
Strategists Are Fired
40% Chance
Trump’s political operation moves quickly to contain the story by dismissing one or more midterm strategists tied to pro-Russia payments. The most likely outcome is a narrow personnel purge framed as protecting Trump from unauthorized activity rather than a broader policy reversal.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Business Services -0.4%
Tickers
- +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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