Possible scenario
Investigations Widen
20% Chance
The story shifts from campaign staffing to legal exposure as Democratic committees, watchdog groups, or the Justice Department seek records related to foreign-agent compliance. This is less likely than a contained firing, but the sequence of reports makes a broader inquiry plausible.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -0.6%
- Industrials +0.5%
Tickers
- +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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