Possible scenario
Campaign Contains Scandal
25% Chance
Trump’s advisers conclude the payments were unauthorized or unrelated to the official campaign structure. The campaign imposes compliance changes but avoids firing top midterm strategists, betting that the story remains an insider-politics issue.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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