Aid Conditionality Gains

The polling shift gives congressional Democrats and some foreign-policy realists more room to argue that U.S. weapons transfers should be tied to civilian-protection benchmarks. The most likely policy change is partial conditionality rather than a full break with Israel, because missile defense and hostage diplomacy remain politically protected.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.