Possible scenario
Refiners Lift Runs
20% Chance
High margins create a strong incentive for complex refiners in the Middle East, India, and Asia to maximize jet fuel and diesel output. If logistics allow, incremental exports could cap margins without requiring a sharp fall in air travel demand.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Tickers
- MPC+1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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