Possible scenario
Policy Relief Arrives
25% Chance
Governments facing airline and inflation pressure could move to ease the squeeze through strategic stock releases, temporary specification waivers, or export-license adjustments. This would cool refining margins quickly but may not fully resolve the structural capacity shortage.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.5%
- Energy -1.2%
Tickers
- DAL+1.8%
- +1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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