Possible scenario
Democratic Turnout Wave
45% Chance
The surge in Latino early voting proves to be a real mobilization effect rather than simple vote-timing substitution. Backlash to raids, deportations, and mail-ballot restrictions helps Democrats in heavily Latino districts and narrows several races Republicans expected to hold.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.