Possible scenario
Chinese breach catalyst
25% Chance
A follow-on Chinese espionage disclosure could convert the staffing story into a concrete national-security failure. The most plausible catalyst is another Salt Typhoon-linked telecom or critical-infrastructure intrusion that investigators say was detected late because field counterintelligence squads were underfilled.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications -0.6%
- Technology -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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