Possible scenario
US-China Arms Race
20% Chance
Beijing treats the four-star command as confirmation that the United States is formalizing autonomous warfare as a core capability. The result is faster PLA testing, allied coordination with Japan and Australia, and greater pressure on export controls for advanced AI chips and autonomy software.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.7%
- Telecommunications +0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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