Possible scenario
Regional Escalation
27% Chance
The Iranian move triggers coordinated action by allied groups and direct pressure on Gulf energy routes. This creates a broader Middle East shock involving Hezbollah, the Houthis, Iraqi militias and U.S. naval forces near the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +5.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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