Possible scenario
Limited Iranian Strike
38% Chance
Iran conducts a visible but bounded missile-and-drone attack designed to restore deterrence without forcing a full regional war. Israel, the United States, Jordan and Gulf air-defense networks intercept most inbound weapons, but Israeli leaders still face pressure to retaliate.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.