Possible scenario
Miami Trial Advances
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the Southern District of Florida consolidates much of the case and moves toward a complex terrorism-and-conspiracy trial. Several defendants cooperate, but the central narrative remains focused on the operational plot to kill Jovenel Moïse rather than a sweeping political reconstruction of Haiti.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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