Possible scenario
Localized Retaliation
24% Chance
A limited exchange of fire occurs near the border as local commanders respond to domestic pressure and battlefield uncertainty. The confrontation remains geographically narrow and does not expand into major air or missile operations.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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