Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
52% Chance
The most likely path is that Islamabad and New Delhi keep the incident at the diplomatic level, with Pakistan lodging a formal protest and India denying intentional targeting of civilians. Both governments have incentives to avoid another cycle like the 2025 post-Kashmir-attack strikes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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