Possible scenario
Broader Military Escalation
14% Chance
A lower-probability but consequential path is that the border deaths feed into the unresolved 2025 strike cycle and both militaries move to higher alert. This would remain below a declared war, but markets would price a material escalation between two nuclear-armed states.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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