Possible scenario
Regulatory Guardrails Tighten
25% Chance
US and South Korean regulators allow the rollout to continue but scrutinize investor eligibility, disclosures, settlement mechanics, and cross-border access. This outcome is plausible because tokenized equities are advancing quickly across Uniswap, OKX, ICE, KakaoPay, Ondo, and Dinari.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.5%
- Technology -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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