Possible scenario
Hardline Security Escalation
18% Chance
The government doubles down on order, using additional riot police, bans on unauthorized marches, and fast-track prosecutions. This can restore calm quickly, but it also risks sharper clashes and a civil-liberties backlash if images of police force against minors circulate widely.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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