Possible scenario
Broader Mobilization
28% Chance
Student unrest merges with the public-sector strike already under way, drawing teachers, transport workers, and civil servants into a broader protest cycle. The risk is not a systemic crisis, but a sharper short-term hit to French services, city-center retail, and investor sentiment toward European risk assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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