Possible scenario
Security Measures Work
25% Chance
US and allied services prioritize protection and surveillance, and no attack occurs. The episode remains a counterintelligence story rather than a market-moving geopolitical escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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