Possible scenario
Contained US Response
45% Chance
Washington treats the alleged assassination plan as a serious but containable intelligence and law-enforcement matter. The most likely path is indictments, expulsions, visa bans, and tighter protection for Russian opposition figures rather than a broad economic confrontation with Moscow.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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