Possible scenario
Mine Threat Persists
30% Chance
The AI-fake finding does not resolve the core security problem: mines or mine-like devices remain present near key tanker lanes. U.S., U.K., and Gulf navies expand escorts and surveillance, while markets price a higher but still contained disruption risk for crude flows through Hormuz.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.