Possible scenario
Forensics Contain Escalation
35% Chance
Western and independent forensic teams converge on the view that the IRGC mine-removal footage was AI-manipulated, weakening the evidentiary basis for immediate retaliation. The Gem No 2 strike remains a live security concern, but the attribution dispute shifts toward inspections, intelligence releases, and maritime escorts rather than kinetic escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.0%
- Consumer Services +0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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