Possible scenario
Protests Re-Emerge
27% Chance
The executions revive protest networks among students, families of detainees, labor activists, and diaspora groups. Demonstrations are likely to be smaller than the 2022 Mahsa Amini wave, but repeated killings could restore momentum in major cities.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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