Possible scenario
Orderly Yield Reset
45% Chance
Investors treat the 30-year yield milestone as a repricing of term premium rather than a funding crisis. Long-duration buyers such as pension funds, insurers and liability-driven investors begin adding exposure, limiting forced selling.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.3%
- Technology +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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