Possible scenario
Fed Stays Restrictive
20% Chance
The Federal Reserve treats higher long-end yields as consistent with the fight against inflation rather than as a reason to ease quickly. Markets price a longer period of tight financial conditions, with modest pressure on risk assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Fed policy rate Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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