Possible scenario
Rapid Baja Normalization
45% Chance
Polo's weakening to roughly 80 mph at landfall keeps the event closer to a routine Category 1 regional disaster than the earlier Category 5 threat. Emergency crews in Baja California Sur restore main roads, power, and airport operations quickly, limiting economic damage to short-lived travel disruption.
Tickers
- HLT+0.2%
- H-0.1%
- MAR+0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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