Possible scenario
Limited Strike Confirmed
28% Chance
A follow-up investigation finds evidence that a Russian or Russian-launched drone struck or detonated close to a commercial vessel in Romanian-controlled waters. The event is treated as a serious but contained escalation rather than an automatic trigger for collective defense.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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