Possible scenario
Denial Holds
42% Chance
Romanian and NATO checks find no confirmed strike on the Yara J or another vessel inside NATO waters. The episode remains part of a tense Black Sea pattern, but the immediate escalation risk fades.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.1%
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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