Possible scenario
Military Escalation
30% Chance
Iran may conclude that a total oil cutoff threatens regime finances enough to justify another military response. The highest-risk path is a cycle of IRGC attacks, US counterstrikes, and growing disruption to shipping insurance and tanker movement.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +5.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.