Possible scenario
Diplomatic Off-Ramp
20% Chance
A diplomatic channel may open because China wants supply stability, Gulf states want Hormuz traffic protected, and Iran wants a path to limited revenue. This would not necessarily restore Iranian exports quickly, but it could reduce the immediate war premium.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.5%
- Consumer Services +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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