Possible scenario
Contained Blockade Holds
40% Chance
The most likely path is that Washington maintains the blockade and Iran avoids a direct strike that would trigger a larger US response. Oil exports remain effectively at zero, but commercial traffic through Hormuz continues under heavy naval escort.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.0%
- Consumer Services -1.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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