Possible scenario
U.S. Military Retaliation
25% Chance
Washington responds more forcefully if another U.S.-escorted ship is hit or evidence clearly links the attack to IRGC units. The near-term risk is a limited kinetic exchange that raises oil prices, defense shares, volatility, and credit stress.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +5.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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