Possible scenario
Managed Maritime Disruption
45% Chance
The most likely path is a continuation of attacks and harassment without a decisive move by Iran or the United States to trigger a wider war. Tanker traffic continues under heavier escort, insurance costs rise, and oil prices retain a geopolitical premium, but exports are not fully halted.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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