Possible scenario
Public GOP Rupture
27% Chance
The story escalates as additional Republican senators validate Tillis's claim that fear of Trump drives Senate behavior. Trump responds with direct attacks and primary threats, increasing uncertainty around confirmations, appropriations, and Senate discipline.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
- Business Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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