Possible scenario
Leadership Contains Revolt
38% Chance
Senate Republican leaders move quickly to keep the dispute from becoming a public institutional confrontation with Trump. Most senators continue expressing concerns privately but avoid joining Tillis on the record before the 2026 election.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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