Calibrated Tanker Campaign

Iran or IRGC-aligned units continue limited tanker strikes to raise costs for oil flows without formally closing the Strait of Hormuz. This is the most likely path because the timeline shows repeated tanker hits and public IRGC signaling, but Tehran still has incentives to avoid a direct U.S. war.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.