Possible scenario
Soft-Landing Labor Cooling
45% Chance
The low weekly private-hiring average is treated as confirmation that the labor market is cooling but not collapsing. Investors increasingly expect the Federal Reserve to shift toward easier policy while consumer spending and corporate margins remain broadly intact.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.5%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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