Possible scenario
Data Noise Rebound
20% Chance
The 18,500 average is later seen as noisy or affected by temporary seasonal distortions. Markets reverse part of the initial growth scare, and attention returns to inflation, wages and the official payrolls report.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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