Possible scenario
Democrats Seek Replacement
15% Chance
Party leaders conclude that the foreign-funding allegation is too damaging for a competitive Senate race. The practical path is difficult because of ballot deadlines, but senior Democrats pressure El-Sayed to withdraw or dramatically restructure the campaign.
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
- Healthcare +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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