Possible scenario
Campaign Contains Damage
25% Chance
El-Sayed's campaign disputes the undercover video, releases selected donor-vetting records, and argues the campaign official misspoke or was deceptively recorded. The allegation remains politically damaging but does not fully reset the Michigan Senate race.
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -0.1%
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.