Possible scenario
Republicans Hold House
40% Chance
Johnson’s $156 million haul gives the NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund enough late-cycle firepower to protect vulnerable Republican incumbents. The most likely pro-GOP outcome is a retained but still narrow majority, with Johnson arguing that his fundraising justified continued leadership.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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